2030: Do scorching heat waves become the new norm?

I caught a great feature on npr the other day pertaining to climate change and heat waves.  There is no universal definition of a heatwave although in a general sense it can be defined as a prolonged period of excessive heat.  I usually think of a heat wave as a string of more than 3 days of high heat and humidity…..  and not being able to sleep with the covers on at night.  The guest, Noah Diffenbaugh, is the author of a new study which concludes heat waves could become commonplace by 2039, with devastating consequences.   He is an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.

How scary is this:    Diffenbaugh predicts that the occasional heat waves of the last half century will become commonplace by 2030, in most models 5-7 times higher.  And this is using a relatively modest rise in temperature.  The new norm, in the not so distant future, could become an entire summer of scorching, stay indoors, heat!  Ugh.  Just starting to think about the dire implication to crops, human health, power demand, and my mountain biking schedule is frightening.

What landscape architects can do now to plan for the future:

1. Water conservation and reuse strategies:  Rethinking the use of turf, xeriscaping, rainwater harvesting, etc.  For more information, see our June blog post:  http://ub-la.com/blog/2010/05/26/strategies-for-water-conservation-and-reuse/
2. Anticipate the possible loss of many of our native plantings, as the extremes in temperature push them northward.  Continue to introduce plants from areas slightly south of us.
3. Using trees, shrubs, groundcovers, shaded structures,  and colored pavements to reduce ‘heat island effect’.  Heat island effect is defined as a “dome” of elevated temperatures over an urban area caused by structural and pavement heat fluxes, and pollutant emissions.
4. Designing green roofs.
5. Discouraging the use of automobiles!  We should work hand in hand with other planning professions to increase the use of public transportation, bicycling, and walking.
6. Now getting into some really big picture thinking:  Working with other planning professions to develop solutions for suburban sprawl, an unsustainable development model which has dominated the American building landscape since WWII.

There are many differing opinions about what will happen in the future regarding climate change, and Mr. Diffenbaugh’s is just one of the many.  But it seems to be fairly certain that the way we have lived in the past, particularly since the industrial revolution, is having consequences for the future of how we live as human beings.  The idea that we could see changes like these gradually over the next 20 years really drives home the point that we need to be thinking about this now.  City planners, landscape architects, architects, engineers, and other design professionals need to come together in a coordinated effort to shape the future of growth and development in a sustainable way.